Seed predation during general flowering events of varying magnitude in a Malaysian rain forest

1 The lowland dipterocarp forests of Southeast Asia exhibit interspecifically synchronized general flowering (GF) and mast fruiting at irregular multi-year intervals of 1 to 11 years. The predator satiation hypothesis (PSH) posits that GF events enhance seed survival by reducing the survival, reproduction and population sizes of seed predators between GF events, and then satiating the reduced seed predator populations during GF events. 2 Three GF events of different magnitudes occurred in Pasoh Forest Reserve, Peninsular Malaysia, during 2001, 2002 and 2005. We exploited this natural experiment to test two predictions of the PSH. The first prediction was that seed survival should increase with the magnitude of the GF event. The second prediction was that seed predation should decrease with time since the previous GF event. 3 A reproductive survey of all ( c . 900) dipterocarp trees ≥ 30 cm d.b.h. in a 50 ha plot showed that flowering pervasiveness (the proportion of dipterocarp species participating) was high and similar in all three GF events. However, relative flowering magnitudes (measured by an index of individual tree participation and flowering intensity in Shorea species) were 2, 5 and 8 for the 2001, 2002 and 2005 GF events, respectively. 4 The percentage of Shorea seeds surviving preand post-dispersal predation increased with the magnitude of GF events, which is consistent with the first prediction. 5 Pre-dispersal insect seed predators consumed 12.9%, 11.2% and 3.4% of Shorea seeds in the 2001, 2002 and 2005 GF events, respectively, which is consistent with both predictions. 6 Pre-dispersal seed predation by primates (mainly leaf monkeys) increased from 11.9% to 38.6% then fell to 9.3% in the 2001, 2002 and 2005 GF events, respectively. 7 Predator satiation occurred only at population and community levels. At the individual tree level there was no relationship between the percentage of seeds surviving preand post-dispersal seed predation and variation in seed crop size or seed density beneath the tree. This suggests that attempts to test the PSH on the scale of individual trees may miss key community level effects. 8 Our results suggest a more significant role of pre-dispersal seed predation in the evolution of reproductive synchrony than was recognized in the original statement of the PSH.